The dollar index gained momentum since the Trump-win in the U.S. presidential elections to a 14-year high in a surprising rallying in the stock markets and in the U.S. dollar index as traders and investors are optimistic about stronger global economic growth and higher interest rates.
The Federal Reserve increased rates early this month, for the first time this year, and is expected to be more hawkish and raise rates again three times in 2017 on expectations of a steady or more growing economic growth in 2017 supported by Trump’s fiscal stimulus strategy to rise government spending, which is believed to be financed from government borrowing and not because of growth in the U.S. economy.
These hikes in the interest rates boost the dollar index.
If the dollar index kept surging and boosted by the three interest rates hikes in 2017, it can hit 107 in late Q1 of 2017 and break 115 high, its highest in 15 years.
If Trump’s administration followed the fiscal plan, consumer inflation will rise, giving the Fed the confidence to interest rates hike which will increase the cost of borrowing.
It’s notable to say that stronger dollar is highly bearish to the precious metals market as gold prices slipped to 10-month low and silver declined to 8-month low, and can be a threat to U.S. manufacturers, risking the profits of some companies and that will complicate Trump’s drive to boost factory employment.
As much as a stronger dollar is good for U.S. consumers and companies that purchase components abroad, it is bad business for U.S. manufacturers reliant on sales in overseas markets where their products have become more expensive. Now, many have started to cut back costs.
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