Oil price , expectation, recovery

QNB Group report predicted that the gradual recovery in oil prices occur until 2017. The report is clear that the price of a barrel of Brent crude fell by 57% between June 2014 and January 2015, where he stooped to the level of $ 45 a barrel. However, in the past three weeks the price of oil rose by 31% to reach $ 59 a barrel.

This raises new facts question about whether there was another rebound in the road, given the reduction of the oil companies for investment spending and the shrinking number of drilling rigs in the United States.

These facts indicate that such major changes that affect the prices in the medium term only, while technical factors explain the reasons of the recent upturn prices capital markets.

The report, obtained by “direct” and said it was likely that these technical factors are of a temporary effect, and therefore we do not expect a rebound least important during 2015. However, the fundamental changes that are now occurring in the offer will lead to a gradual recovery in oil prices during 2016 and 2017.

He pointed out that technical factors that drove the recovery in oil prices may be a futures contract linked to the price of oil in proportion to the spot price.

When the instant of the lowest prices dropped from $ 70 a barrel in January 2015, expectations change supply and demand led to higher prices of futures contracts on the spot price.

The higher spot prices have become less, whenever the expected increase in futures prices of the largest, leading to the decline of the futures curve. Futures curve has reached levels more steeper when spot prices reached their lowest level has widened futures prices became due in December 2017 higher than $ 20 a barrel above the spot price.

He added: It is perhaps for this reason called to win traffickers in oil to buy oil in the spot market and store it for the purpose of selling it at higher prices in the futures markets.

It also encouraged the storage and accumulation of oil. The reports said that the top traders in the oil and major Chinese companies have booked a giant containers to store oil when oil prices tumbled and stock it reached in the United States, the highest level ever.

The report pointed out that, when oil prices fell, also fell short positions of futures markets. It is possible that the unwinding of speculative positions and change the direction of the centers have played an important role in the recent upturn on prices, but this is not linked to the basic fluctuations in oil supplies.

The report to be reduced to changes in supply and demand, the impact on prices until 2016 and 2017. It has announced a number of major oil companies for cuts in investment, but many of these companies still expect an increase in production in 2015, especially in shale oil producing companies in the United States.

For example, the Continental Resources Inc. deduct investment spending by 41% to US $ 2.7 billion, but still expects rising production by 20% during this year.

She and the International Energy Agency said in a report released last week that the decline in shale oil production would be “limited in size.”
He pointed out that cuts in investment leads to reducing the number of operating drilling rigs in the United States, but it is not expected to affect the production only in 2016 and 2017.

Number of drilling rigs operating in the United States has dropped by 21 percent to 1.456 thousand platform so far in 2015. However, the historical data for the number of US rigs seem weak production of crude oil in the United States relationship.

He added: “It was not for the decline in the number of drilling rigs in 2012 seen on US oil production, which continued to rise steadily effect. After being drilled, it takes some time for the development and operation. Tend oil companies to keep a number of drilled oil wells that are waiting operation full.

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