Report of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DCCI) predicted that the global economy to grow by an average of 3.2% during the current year, noting that in 2017 and beyond, it is expected that the global economy recovers, thanks to the emerging market economies and developing countries will begin to conditions in the economies that are exposed pressure gradually improving. The chamber’s report, which is based on his analysis of the report issued by the International Monetary Fund, the global economy is still facing a sterile economic policies of the governments of the world, with the decline in the confidence of individuals and businesses. The report, obtained by «Emirates Today» a copy of it to the declining growth in the GCC countries from 3.3% in 2015 to 1.8% in 2016, with growth expected to increase to more than 2% in the medium term.
The detailed report of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DCCI) said that the global economy is still facing a sterile economic policies of the governments of the world, and the decline of individuals and business confidence, pointing out that despite the positive outlook for the recovery of the global economic growth in 2016 and beyond, however, that the global economy is still facing the average growth forecast . The report attributed this to several factors in all countries, include modest capital investment growth, negative growth of industrial production, and declining business confidence.
The report pointed out that the International Monetary Fund said in a report on the «World Economic Outlook growth» the continued recovery of the global economy during the first quarter of 2016, albeit at a slow pace and more fragile. He pointed out that for the second time in a row, the International Monetary Fund cut its forecast for global economic growth, making the global economy more vulnerable to the risk of losing the pace of growth, and falling into a long-term recession.
He explained that in line with the expectations of the International Monetary Fund, the latest Institute «Brookings» updates in the United States has made clear that the recovery of the global economy is still weak and uneven, and is in danger of deadlock again. He said that the main factors behind the reduced expectations of global economic growth and concerns about the sustainability of recovery, can be attributed to renewed turbulence in the world market of the assets, as well as the loss of growth in the advanced economies momentum, pointing to the continuing unfavorable conditions in emerging markets and low-income countries economies. He stressed that the IMF report predicted global economic growth by an average of 3.2%, falling short by about 0.2% compared to expectations of the Fund in January 2016, pointing out that in 2017 and beyond, the report expects that the global economy recovers, thanks to market economies emerging and developing countries will begin to conditions in the economies that are under pressure to improve gradually.
It focused on the chamber’s report that developing and emerging economies account for the largest share in the expected global growth in 2016, and despite the fact that expectations remain mixed among nations, and generally weaker than the past two decades. He predicted that the growth rate was slightly higher compared to 2015, but remain below B2% of the average growth in the past decade, it is due mainly to the weakness of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, the Mediterranean and the slowdown in China is estimated at 0.4%, while growth continued to diverge from the industry and investment, and expectations that are still weak for countries exporting non-oil commodities, such as Latin America, following a further decline in prices.
He pointed out that despite the fact that emerging and oil-importing developing countries to benefit from the terms of trade gains, only to restrict financing conditions and weak external demand, may have dampened the positive impact of the terms of trade on domestic demand and growth. The report predicted slowdown in annual GDP of China’s growth to 6.5%, compared to B6.9% in 2015.
The report noted that the data published by the «Brookings» Institute pointed out that China’s industrial production growth has fallen to less than 5.5%, which is considered the most sluggish since the 2009 figure, as exports fell, but the growth in retail sales and income individuals and employment is still good, it which reflects the rebalancing of China’s economy to achieve growth through increased domestic demand.
Chamber report said that in the event of a slowdown more severe than currently expected in China, is likely to have a strong global negative effects through trade and commodity prices and confidence, may lead to the spread of most of the slowdown in the global economy.
He predicted that India’s growth to rise to 7.5% in 2016 to 2017, making India the fastest major growing economy, pointing out that, backed by low energy prices and rising real income and domestic consumption is the engine of economic growth for India, however, has low investment growth led strongly and the decline of industrial production, the emergence of concerns about the sustainability of the steady growth of the economy of India.
The report said that the big emerging economies such as Brazil, Russia continues to suffer from cases of deep recessions, pointing out that in both the Brazilian and Russian economies, any index of economic activity has decreased, and decreased business confidence. Several oil-exporting countries to also face a difficult macro-economic environment, with the sharp weakness in the terms of trade and external financing constraints.
The report predicted lower growth in the GCC countries from 3.3% in 2015 to 1.8% in 2016, growth is also expected to increase to more than 2% in the medium term. He explained that in 2016, it is expected that the developed economies to lose some of its growth momentum, which is expected to remain modest at 1.9%, in line with the results of 2015, indicating that the slowdown in economic activity in developed economies, and the decline in asset prices, and concerns about the ability to meet the obligations Finance, led to the restriction of financing conditions.
The report pointed out that in the United States, is expected to stabilize growth at 2.7% in 2016, which is the ratio of the strongest growth amid the advanced economies, indicating that the US economy continues its distance from most of the other advanced economies, where he achieved strong growth in jobs, increased rates growth in retail sales and credit, and accelerated consumer confidence, which bodes consumption growth in the green. He pointed out that, however, is expected to result in weak business confidence and the slight increase in investment to reduce the sustainable growth prospects.
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