Since the meeting on the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in September to put outlines of a deal to curb oil outputs and we have seen fluctuations in oil prices.

For a while we see prices going higher amid hopes on finalizing the deal and in other times, prices drop upon worries that the deal will not see the light.

The group tried to reach a cut output deal because oil production has been outpacing consumption by 1 to 2 million bpd since late 2014.

On November 30, the group agreed on an accord to curb production, led into a surge in prices to its highest level by 20 percent after the news.

Now, data shows record high production last month infusing doubts that the group would apply to the deal’s terms and cut supplies.

The data showed a record high of OPEC’s output at 34.19 million barrels per day, from 33.82 million bpd in October, the deal is to cut production to 32.5 million bpd.

Russia which said would comply with the agreement although it is a non-OPEC member but will be part of the 600,000 bpd cut from non-OPEC members pumped an average of 11.21 million bpd in November, its highest in nearly 30 years.

What does that mean?

It means that OPEC and Russia alone pumped enough supplies that cover almost half of globe oil demand, which is just above 95 million bpd.

Then the markets have a right to express worries that the deal will not be enough to kindle prices and Investors are confused whether or not the producers will balance production to meet supply and demand.

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What troubles the situation more are the exempted countries which seek boosting their production by the upcoming year like Nigeria and Libya.

OPEC member Nigeria said on Wednesday it hoped to boost its oil production to 2.1 million bpd in January, up from 1.9 million bpd now.

Let’s see the deal’s terms

– Saudi Arabia should reduce output by 486,000 bpd to 10.058 million bpd.

– Iraq, OPEC’s second largest OPEC producer, should cut 210,000 bpd, agreed on the cut after negotiations it should be exempt as it needs oil revenues in its war against Islamic State.

– The United Arab Emirates should cut output by 139,000 bpd.

– Kuwait to cut output by 131,000 a day.

– Russia should cut 300,000 bpd taking half the load of the 600,000 bpd cut from non-OPEC members.

Still, expectations are not sure about Russia closing the deal.

OPEC deal can trigger other producers to pump more oil into the markets, causing fluctuations and break hopes to prop up prices.

We will see if OPEC complies with the deal and if they did, Will that help reviving oil prices and we will also see if external factors will not affect prices.

North Sea Brent crude LCOc1 was down 65 cents a barrel at $53.28 by 1430 GMT. U.S. light crude CLc1 was down 70 cents at $50.23 a barrel.

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