It emerged this year, new answers to many questions that revolve around the sudden and traumatic events this year? The answer is simply the nature characteristic of 2016. Prior to six months ago, most analysts win the Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump in the US presidential election ruled out, but this happens remains an option; and this explains the nature of the important developments during 2016.
On the other hand, analysts ruled out of the United Kingdom from the European Union, but it actually happened unexpectedly after a referendum, sparking a major imbalance in the prices at the level of the market, where on the price of gold higher levels very quickly, posing a shock for investors .
Arrived GBP and Financial Times’ to the verge of collapse too fast, and has established a state of frustration in the wake of it.
In this context, we wonder: What are the possible scenarios for the occurrence of high waves or falling after Trump win? For landing scenario, it may seem similar to what happened when a vote ‘Brixt’, where he will take the index ‘Standard & Poor’s 500’ the role of the British stock ‘FTSE’ index.
On the other hand, investor confidence could fall significantly in the short term, which will lead to losses in the «Standard & Poor’s 500» Index increased by 5-10%, which would end the rally lasted for eight years. In this context, it may increase volatility index (VIX), and therefore we will see a potential fluctuations in the wake of the unexpected results of the American elections.
The Mexican peso from other assets that will have a remarkable attention in the midst of this scene track possibilities. Since the Trump promised during his campaign to build a wall to prevent the entry of Mexican immigrants illegally into the United States, this coin was one of the best financial assets that provided strong indications of Clinton winning and losing Trump.
But the peso fell sharply, especially after detecting the FBI «FBI» for a new investigation during the last week of the month of October on the issue of leaked e-mail to the candidate, Hillary Clinton; the form that a clear indication of the possibility of Trump victory, noting that the peso losses may reach up to 15%.
There remains plenty of room for debate as to whether the dollar will face a loss, will continue to climb, given that this is considered a safe haven currency in times of instability. In general, the dollar can maintain the levels or even rise against other currencies in the case of Trump win, especially in the light of the intervention by the Federal Reserve policies since 2007.
Also prevail some doubts as to whether gold -oho also a haven assets perfom preferring to remain on the part of traders. When markets lose their readiness to take the risk when exposed to strong impact short-term, they are usually moving towards gold as a safe haven for investment.
For the scenario to climb, the emergence of an initial sale of activities will allow the availability of smart money, and take advantage of the correction in the market waves. We have seen something similar to that in the wake of the vote «Brixt», when «Financial Times» Index regained stability of his hopes for the transactions of purchase and plans of easing by central banks.
In the medium term, we may witness further developments in terms of investor sentiment. Lost businessman Donald Trump often promoted his economic policies, such as reducing red tape, a move that could unpopular among US companies. In the case of Trump arrived to the presidency actually, mergers and acquisitions may thrive thanks to the availability regulations less restrictive compared to the complex current laws.
The presence of supportive policies for business and companies may also contribute to the prosperity of the financial services sector again, and consolidate the confidence of investors for the first time since the mortgage crisis in 2007. Moreover, the biotech sector shares may rebound rapidly if he wins Trump, especially after he suffered losses in the wake of criticism from Clinton about the high prices of products the company «Ebi between.»
Despite the clear assurances that took root in the markets about Hillary Clinton win the election, but the results – as is always the case when it comes to expectations- may be disappointing for the markets; firstly because the topic is linked to the nature of the benefits and finally abandoned in 2016.
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