A number of researchers and Arab experts on the need for economic transformation process undertaken by Saudi Arabia are currently in the framework of the “Vision 2030”, to transform the Saudi economy away from total dependence on oil and the government sector through rationalization of expenditure, and the creation of non-oil fiscal revenues, and diversification of the economy, raise the contribution of the private sector in GDP to about two-thirds. Participants said the “meeting Economic diversification in Saudi Arabia requirements and challenges” which was held on the second day of the Forum for the Gulf and Arabian Peninsula Studies at its third session on Sunday and organized by the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies that there are conditions for the implementation of the vision and challenges that must be upon the project works to address them to avoid cons stage the transition from welfare economics entirely and rely on oil to economic reform and diversification of the Saudi economy
Human Role For his part, Dr. Mohammed Salem Al-Sabban’s economic adviser and oil Saudi Arabia stressed that the effort before it was directed to create a concrete forest -Building- human account, pointing out that the solution for the success of the process of economic diversification in the Kingdom is to focus on human through knowledge until it was convinced the vision and be part of it. Sabban said in his paper titled “conditions for the success of economic diversification in Saudi Arabia.” That the vision of the Kingdom 2030 sessions were not in a transparent manner, it did not collect all the spectrums of the community, some of whom believe he did not participate in the construction of vision. He called for the existence of social participation more effective through workshops and reports through the chambers of commerce or other entities. He stressed that accountability and transparency have not shown no form required despite the fact that the vision I have spoken, calling for transparency and accountability are the largest, at the macroeconomic level and not only isolate the minister or other something that needs to be enabled to gain the community’s trust. Sabban pointed out that the 2030 vision suffer from lack of taking into account the transition period between the adoption of economic reform and the beginning of improvement or citizen note the presence of the benefits began to be realized from the application of the vision that aims at economic diversification. He said that the Saudi citizen is going through difficult period of transition is to start applying the vision for some actions, such as reducing salaries, allowances and fees white land and raise fuel prices without being accompanied by plans for low-income earners who are currently suffering.
Sabban pointed out that the 2030 vision suffer from lack of taking into account the transition period between the adoption of economic reform and the beginning of improvement or citizen note the presence of the benefits of coming true
He said that the state has adopted some policies that can contribute to the realization of the vision, but at the same time should be dealt with repercussions such actions to rationalize spending that led to reduce government spending, but at the same time led to the contraction of the private sector by as much as 2%, and the payment of contractors commuted from a liquidity crisis, but this is not enough and there must be a parallel plan for austerity based on mitigation.
Sabban pointed out a positive vision focus on the transformation of Rei community to community through the establishment of a sovereign investment fund community, a decision that came late as demanded by experts since 2004, also put up 5% of the Aramco shares is important as it improves efficiency and increases the control that limiting corruption, stressing that the stock sale will not include the sale of oil reserves and those who will sell it is a privilege for a certain period.
In response to a question about the success of the sale of shares Aramco raised opportunities locally for the Saudi investor or globally, given the decline in oil prices Sabban said: “the desire to purchase a list of Saudi Arabia and the stock markets the world”, pointing out that the difference in oil prices between now and then is normal.
Sabban said oil prices will revolve around $ 55, because of the pressure of shale oil and sand-Kandari, even if the price has risen to 60 to 55 will come back and that any rise in these numbers would be in favor of rock.
On the coordination between the Gulf states in the economic diversification process so that industries will not be repeated between the state-Sabban said that King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud announced it will create a Gulf Economic Affairs and Development Council, to exchange experiences and learn and coordination interface, as long as the market bears can create institutions or similar industries .
Economic and Saudi oil adviser certainly seal his intervention on the optimistic vision of the Kingdom successfully in 2030; because the Saudis do not have an alternative to the optimism, the alternative is very bad, as he put it.
Face the consequences
From their part, the researchers just Hamaizah and McCue Yamada stressed that reform of energy prices, a process that requires “tactics” deliberate, concerning Baahalla and level and punished in order to ensure smooth implementation.
He added in Rguetehma titled “The Political Economy for economic transition in Saudi Arabia,” which has Hamaizah viewing, energy subsidies that formed the core feature of the social contract between the government and society in the UK.
The paper noted that the government’s monetary policies despite the positives in achieving its objectives of economic diversification, but they require at the same time to develop plans to address the economic negatives resulting both in regard to the economy of the citizen or the private sector, Reducing spending reduces the budget deficit, but at the same time raise the prices fuel and leads to lower education, health and other budget, and that privatization will lead, in part, to attract investment and technology transfer, but on the other hand, it will reduce the number of jobs and then rise in the unemployment rate.
The paper presented the strategies adopted by the Saudi government to restore fiscal balance, which, including the imposition of taxes (including tax to reduce consumption of harmful goods and VAT), and the privatization of state-owned companies, the introduction of the green card system, and reconsider the generous benefits secured by sector year.
The paper confirmed that one of the most important challenges facing Saudi Arabia’s vision for 2030, a plan for development lies in the need to implement the tax adjustment.
According to the researchers, the budget deficit in 2015 amounted to 367 billion Saudi riyals (about 98 billion US dollars); ie 15% of GDP. This was a result of lower oil prices, which hovered between 30 and US $ 40 this year.
For its part, the researcher Arabia faith Alquivela confirmed that the welfare of the citizens, which established in the Kingdom with the influx of oil revenues, and through times of boom model is exposed to the pressure in times of austerity, and to the threat of collapse in times of transition towards economic diversification, so accelerate the pace of privatization projects, particularly of basic services such as education health care and other services that are reflected directly and negatively on the lives of individuals and families reflection.
Alquivela in her paper entitled “The welfare state in transition: A look at the national shift in the Saudi plan” that the Saudi economy, despite its need for diversity and reduce dependence on oil, it is necessary to achieve this diversity correlated with a plan to keep the social welfare lest ends diversity plans to create social and economic gaps and harm social stability.
She said the concept of well-being in modern Saudi state was based on the state’s use of oil revenues to support the legitimacy of the existing system through a number of props, such as the expansion of government employment and the granting of mortgages and spending on education and health, as well as infrastructure and services, and then the people now considers that the welfare responsibility State, a model who has been the challenge of population growth and low income.
Saudi Arabia’s economy despite the need for diversity and reduce dependence on oil, it is necessary to achieve this diversity correlated with a plan to maintain social welfare, lest economic diversification plans expire at creating social gaps and harm social stability
The researcher pointed out that the Saudi welfare model did not Wenbin on a clear vision, and the importance of the human role and then ended the crisis prompted the state to engage in economic reform and diversification process which is manifested in Vision 2030.
Alquivela believes that the vision in spite of its importance to face the current crisis, but they did not put the eradication of poverty as one of its objectives as adopted model “neoliberal” based on the expansion in the privatization and sale of state facilities, although questioned and their role in exacerbating poverty, adding to the difficulty of application in With corruption and lack of control.
She added that to say that the poverty resulting from the transformation process would be temporary versus out of it in the long run did not specify the duration of poverty before coming out of it, especially with the presence of Arab experiences the longer the period did not end with the passage of years to implement economic reform plans.
Alquivela reported that the main challenge for the future is in the privatization Sttaul most important sectors, namely education and health, which will extend to the middle class, which I used to get the services free of charge because of the rentier mentality to fight the mentality of the production, and the privatization in the light of corruption and centers forces would be in favor of these centers the rest of the classes account.
It is also anticipated consequences, according to Quivela, is to increase social inequality because of the type or region, calling for the need to apply the civil and political reforms by allowing freedom of association, accountability and citizen participation in decision-making.
On the transitional journey requirements Alquivela pointed to the importance of not cutting spending on welfare and health expenses and the demarcation of the border between the public and private bottom and stop dependence on oil, saying that the reformist vision should be directed to the well-being of citizens before they are directed to reduce the state’s role in welfare.
Lack of transformation factors
Dr. Nasser Al-Tamimi, an independent researcher in the United Kingdom, it was confirmed that the reform programs Arabia has raised the attention of the world because of what it represents UK economic weight as a result of its membership in the Group of Twenty, and its central role in world oil markets, in addition to the fullness of their religious status on levels regional and international.
Tamimi said in his paper entitled “The reform of economic diversification policies in Saudi Arabia: Option or Necessity?” That the immediate motive for these programs to reform the economy was the result of the direct negative effect of the sharp drop in oil prices, the rationale for this shift in the Saudi economy management premise was clear for a long time.
He pointed out that over-reliance on oil, which is associated with the increasing population growth and the growing local development requirements and the high unemployment rate among young people, making the “Vision 2030” need not be inevitable.
He stressed that the partial processing of up to a dead end, noting that the successful countries in economic transition, namely Mexico, Malaysia, Indonesia, gathered, including three properties, namely cheap labor and the process of political consensus and transmission of democratic and regional cooperation conducive to the diversification of export, factors or unavailable properties in Saudi Arabia according to Tamimi.
Tamimi called for full transparency in the process of transformation in the private fund management and the existence of political vision in transformation programs, including giving citizens the right to oversight and accountability.
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